The hottest multiple factor accumulation PTA trend

  • Detail

The cumulative PTA trend of multiple factors is unspeakably optimistic

recently, Zhengzhou PTA futures market has continued to consolidate its weakness and is poised to take off. Especially since June 21, the main contract of Zhengzhou PTA has gradually shifted to the far month, showing a pattern of near strength and far weakness. The 09 contract volume reduction bottomed out and rose slightly, while the far month 01 contract volume increase broke down. Although the effectiveness of this break has yet to be verified, the market is generally bearish on the late trend of PTA, which is expected to increase significantly

first of all, internationally, standard & Poor's rating agency lowered the U.S. rating outlook from "stable" to negative, and the number of unemployed rose; European sovereign debt has not improved, and Greek debt continues to deteriorate. Domestically, the PMI index is still declining month on month, with CPI increasing by 5.5% year-on-year in May. High inflation in emerging economies has prompted tightening policies to continue to increase. The people's Bank of China decided to raise the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from June 20, 2011. After the increase of the deposit reserve ratio, the deposit reserve ratio of large banks reached a record high of 21.5%, which is the 12th time that the Central Bank of China has increased the deposit reserve ratio since 2010 and the sixth time that the deposit reserve ratio was increased in 2011. The Bank of India also recently announced that it would raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.5%, while raising the reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%, which is the bank's 10th interest rate increase in nearly 16 months; The Bank of the Philippines also announced that it would raise the bank reserve ratio from 19% to 20%. The measures taken by emerging economies with the fastest economic growth to recover liquidity will certainly curb the demand for international bulk commodities, which will be detrimental to the later trend of PTA

secondly, recently, it was reported that the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said in an interview that the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy was under discussion, and it was still uncertain when the bad news would be realized, but undoubtedly this was also an important bad factor for the later market fatigue

moreover, this summer, China will face the most serious power shortage in nearly seven years. Zhejiang has begun to implement punitive electricity prices since June. Hangzhou Xiaoshan recently released the "implementation measures for orderly power use by high energy consuming enterprises during the peak summer of 2011", which spans the third quarter from June 15 to September 5, It will have an important impact on the PTA industry chain, especially the downstream polyester enterprises, which are expected to suffer repeated downtime during the assembly process. In addition to Xiaoshan in Hangzhou, Shaoxing, Cixi, Huzhou in Zhejiang, and Jiangsu Taicai have found their own art language warehouse in various possibilities. People in southern Jiangsu and other places are also becoming more and more interested in the next generation of matrix, and plans will be issued for the orderly use of electricity in summer. Power rationing measures will partially curb the demand of polyester enterprises for PTA. This is undoubtedly a drag on the late PTA market

finally, in terms of PTA supply, on June 7, the oil delivery valve was reopened to increase the test bench by 5-10mm. The 2million ton PTA unit of Yisheng Petrochemical Ningbo was put into production, and the monthly production capacity was increased by 160000 tons. In addition, Yisheng Dalian PTA planned to expand the capacity by 500000 tons/year in July, and the 1.2 million ton unit of Hailun, Sanfangxiang, Jiangyin, Jiangsu planned to be put into production monthly. In addition, the current PTA import remained at about 500000 tons per month, and the number of imports in the near future would not be reduced, At that time, the social supply of PTA will increase significantly. However, the downstream polyester industry has gradually entered the off-season of production and marketing, which will be difficult to boost the demand for PTA in the later stage

based on the above, I personally believe that the trend of PTA in Zhengzhou in the later stage is difficult to be optimistic

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI